U.S. intelligence: Iran halted work on nuclear weapons in 2003

A new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building a bomb. The International Herald Tribune’s Mark Mazzetti writes that the conclusions of the new assessment are likely to be explosive in the middle of tense international negotiations aimed at getting Iran to halt its nuclear energy program, and in the middle of a presidential campaign during which a possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear program has been discussed. The assessment, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) which represents the consensus view of all sixteen American spy agencies, asserts that Tehran’s ultimate intentions about gaining a nuclear weapon remain unclear, but that Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.” The estimate states: “Some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways, might — if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible — prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program.”

The new report comes out five years after a flawed NIE concluded that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons programs and was determined to restart (Vice President Cheney said “reconsitute”) its nuclear program. The report led to congressional authorization for a military invasion of Iraq, although most of the intelligence estimate’s conclusions turned out to be wrong. The new estimate does say that Iran’s ultimate goal is still to develop nuclear weapons. It concludes that if Iran were to end the freeze of its weapons program, it would still be at least two years before Tehran had enough highly enriched uranium to produce a nuclear bomb. The NIE says it is “very unlikely” that Iran could produce enough of the material by then. Instead, the estimate concludes that it is more likely Iran could have a bomb by early to the middle of the next decade. The report says that the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) judges that Iran is unlikely to achieve this goal before 2013 “because of foreseeable technical and programmatic problems.”

The new assessment upends a judgment made only two years ago about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. At the time,