Pirate attack prediction model developed
A mathematician has developed a piracy prediction model based on wind, waves, currents, as well as on the ground intelligence that could help predict the probability of a pirate attack on a given day; the system would function like a tornado warning system using weather data to project high risk areas on a map; the map could be further refined by adding in real time shipping traffic to indicate which ships are most likely to be attacked; piracy has grown worse in the last year, despite stepped up naval patrols; 80 percent of the world’s cargo still travels by sea
A mathematician has developed a piracy prediction model based on wind, waves, currents, as well as on the ground intelligence that could help predict the probability of a pirate attack on a given day.
James Hansen, an applied mathematician with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, believes that by compiling weather data and an understanding of pirate behavior he has developed a pirate warning system.
According to Hansen, “It’s sort of like tornado warnings.” Just as meteorologists can fairly accurately predict the likelihood that a tornado will appear or head in a certain direction, Hansen believes his model could do the same for pirate attacks.
“These guys are running around in tiny ships,” Hansen said, which means that it is difficult for them to operate in rough seas making good weather critical for their ability to sail.
Hansen’s model would generate a map that shows the highest-risk areas and could be of further use by adding up to the minute on shipping traffic to identify likely targets for pirates.
Gordan Van Hook, senior director for innovation and concept development for shipping giant Maersk Line Limited, said that the high profile 2009 hijacking of the cargo ship Maersk Alabama occurred on a calm day in April.
In response to Hansen’s model, he said, “If they would publish areas that are highly likely to have pirate activity, that would be valuable.”
The world’s navies are struggling to protect ships sailing through the Indian Ocean, especially in areas around the Horn of Africa and the Straits of Malacca.
Securing these shipping lanes is critical as 80 percent of the world’s cargo still travels by sea, and a majority of ships must pass through these areas.
Pirate attacks have increased, despite a fleet of forty warships from thirty countries patrolling the waters near Somalia.
The Seattle Times reports that last year there were nearly 450 attacks, with 53 ships captured and an economic cost of $10 billion. In 2009 there were a total of 406 attacks by pirates.
Hansen presented his findings at the American Meteorological Society meeting, which was held from 23 January to 27 January in Seattle.
