Experts: Australia must take lead on climate change

Australia is more vulnerable economically to the effects of climate change than most wealthy nations, according to a new report published last week.

The document is an interim report by the Garnaut Climate Change Review, which is assessing the impact of climate change on Australia’s economy. The New Scientist’s Rachel Nowak writes that in light of the Bali climate conference, the report recommends that Australia play a leading role in international negotiations on mitigating climate change and be ready to make firm commitments to reduce carbon emissions beyond any country’s current targets. “Australia would be a big loser — possibly the biggest loser among developed nations — from unmitigated climate change,” says report author Ross Garnaut, an economist at the Australian National University, and former Australian ambassador to China. The Garnaut Review, commissioned by prime minister Kevin Rudd before his election last November, has been dubbed Australia’s Stern Review. That 2006 review, commissioned for the U.K. government, examined the consequences of climate change on the global economy.

Barry Brook, director of the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainability at the University of Adelaide, said that the new report marks a significant turnabout for Australia, which only agreed to ratify the Kyoto protocol to curb global greenhouse gas emissions in November. “We’ve gone from being a non-ratifying partner of the Kyoto protocol, to ratifying Kyoto but not committing to short-term targets and only committing to loose long-term targets, to discussing cuts of 90% by 2050,” he says. The report partly attributes Australia”s “exceptional sensitivity to climate change” to its climate, which is already notoriously hot, dry, and variable. Another factor is that agriculture, which is sensitive to climate change, plays a larger role in Australia’s economy than in other developed nations. Agricultural production has fallen in recent years owing to an extended drought that most experts agree has been worsened by climate change. Other factors are Australia’s close proximity and economic ties to developing countries in Asia and the Pacific — which themselves are politically and economically sensitive to the stresses of climate change, such as drought, flooding and food shortages.

The interim report also emphasized that Australia could benefit economically from global efforts to alleviate climate change. One way would be to increase its already large exports of uranium and natural gas, which other nations can use to lower their own emissions, for example by generating nuclear power. Rudd had previously committed his government to setting a target of reducing carbon emissions by 60 percent of 2000 levels by 2050, provided that other developed nations made similar commitments. Current European Union targets aim for 60 percent to 80 percent reductions on 1990 levels by 2050. According to the report, however, Australia must accept deeper cuts of 70 percent to 90 percent and push for other nations to further cut their emissions as part of global agreements. California has legislated reductions of 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. The report also calls on the government to set an interim target this year for 2020, similar to those accepted by other developed countries. Penny Wong, Australia’s minister for climate change and water, has so far been non-committal about the proposed adjustment of 2050 targets, saying that the government would wait for the final report, due out in September, before setting targets for 2020.