Coastal resilienceSouth Africa must start managing its retreat from the coast
In 2015 there may remain some small uncertainties about the pace and intensity of climate change, but the inevitability of storm surges and sea level rise is not one of them. Due to the warming ocean’s thermal mass, thermal expansion, melting ice, and other complex interactions between air, land, and water, the sea level will rise significantly over the next few centuries. Even if we stopped using fossil fuels today, this is inevitable. African cities and coastlines, like the rest of the world, absolutely need natural coastal defenses: dunes, estuaries, mangroves, reefs, and coastal plains – but in many areas these defense would not be sufficient. In those areas, another approach should be considered: A managed retreat from the coast. In many places along the African coast such retreat is essential to minimize risk to coastal societies and maximize social and economic stability. And if planned properly, it can generate significant economic growth rather than chaos. The alternative is a grim scenario of treacherous coastline littered with rusting hulks of drowned and broken buildings, displaced coastal communities, and attendant impacts on health, food security, disaster risk management, and social and economic stability.
In 2015 there may remain some small uncertainties about the pace and intensity of climate change, but the inevitability of storm surges and sea level rise is not one of them.
Due to the warming ocean’s thermal mass, thermal expansion, melting ice, and other complex interactions between air, land, and water, the sea level will rise significantly over the next few centuries. Even if we stopped using fossil fuels today, this is inevitable.
We can’t fight climate change on the beaches
African cities and coastlines, like the rest of the world, absolutely need our natural coastal defenses: dunes, estuaries, mangroves, reefs, and coastal plains.
And we’ve messed with them royally, just when we can least afford it. Our dunes are bulldozed and mismanaged by developers, municipalities and transport authorities. Our beaches are crowded with hotels and lifestyle developments.
In areas vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surges, these developments are at increasing risk of inundation and permanent damage over coming years.
A grim scenario of broken, rusting infrastructure littering our coasts is getting more likely around the globe each year that countries prevaricate about climate change and go about their business as though nothing’s happening.
In Nigeria and Senegal alone, more than 24.5 million people live and are part of local economies in coastal areas at high risk of inundation.
A managed retreat from the coast
But it doesn’t have to be this way. We can change it. There’s another film playing in the cinema next door. It’s called “a managed retreat from the coast”. It’s unlikely to draw teenaged Friday-night crowds, perhaps, but it’s a film we all need to watch.
A managed retreat is essential to minimize risk to coastal societies and maximize social and economic stability. And if planned properly, it can generate significant economic growth rather than chaos.
We have to face the reality of planning and implementing — globally and throughout Africa — a managed retreat from the coast.
The cities of Cape Town and Durban, progressively, have modelled areas where storm surges and sea level rise will inevitably start taking out infrastructure and homes in the next decade or two — electrical substations, sewerage infrastructure, roads, railway lines, homes, hotels, shops.
