Buhari wins -- but the new president of Nigeria faces an enormous challenge
Northern exposure
The situation in northern Nigeria is critical. Since 2014, more than 6,000 civilians have been killed by Boko Haram. Around one million Nigerians have been forcibly displaced within the country, and 200,000 have fled to Cameroon, Niger or Chad. Colonel Joseph Nouma of the Maroua Defense Regiment in the Nigerian army told the IRIN news service: “When you go to border villages, all you see are women and children and old people. Young [men], between the ages of ten and 45 are no longer there. They are across the [Nigerian] border with Boko Haram militants.”
In the north, regional actors have been more active than the Nigerian government in fighting Boko Haram. With the approval of the African Union, Nigeria and its neighbors — Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin — have deployed a 8,700-strong Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to fight around 4,000-6,000 Boko Haram Islamist militants.
Presidents from the Economic Community of Central African States (ECOWAS) pledged in early 2015 to create a US$87 million emergency fund for military, medical, and logistical support for the MNJTF. Nigeria’s current president expects Boko Haram to be defeated within a month. However, even with the presence of regional allies, Boko Haram is likely to go into hiding and conduct a guerrilla campaign.
Past policy vacuum
The way the government has addressed violence in the north has been abysmal: very few measures have been taken. Muslim clerics identified lack of good governance as the primary reason Boko Haram succeeded in recruiting members. According to a U.S. official, “they warned that similar crises would occur if the government failed to address social problems.”
In terms of social measures, when Boko Haram started fighting in 2009, a “societal reorientation program” was created in the north. However, according to one US official, this program only made it possible for Boko Haram to “recruit more members,” as it had no impact on the population’s well-being.
Military action against Boko Haram has been deplorable, probably because Boko Haram had clear connections to the government. The Nigerian army committed serious human rights violations in its response to Boko Haram. Hundreds of civilians and suspected Boko Haram members have been killed, and detainees have died in military custody.
In 2015, President Jonathan’s national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, only mentioned the creation of a single social policy — in Kuje prison in the capital Abuja which aims at deradicalizing former insurgents. The new government will have to develop social policies to reduce inequalities in order to prevent further violence.
What the new government has to do
The economic involvement of the Nigerian government is inadequate. Only half of the investment projects in the north were completed in 2014.
In 2015, the government created a US$133 million emergency fund for the north in order to finance ninety-four different projects such as road construction, railways, energy and agriculture, but the precise use of this fund remains to be seen.
The new president will have to address three long-standing and critical issues in the north: economic development, education and health. Economic development is needed to counter Boko Haram, which is paying men around US$700-a-month to join its ranks.
The economy
The new government must tackle the difficult issue of unemployment which, among all age groups, is at least 75 percent. Many young people, especially recent graduates, say it is impossible to find decent work. For the few who do have a job, the minimum wage is US$70 a month. The new government will also have to address the lack of economic resources and food in the north.
Education
The new Nigerian government will have to prioritize education. When Boko Haram started attacking civilians in 2009, it was known to oppose “western education models.” However, young men fighting for Boko Haram could not have had much knowledge of education. In 2011 in northern Nigeria, half of the men had no education at all, only 7 percent completed primary education, and only 6 percent completed secondary education. Education in the north should therefore be a priority for whoever has power next. This is important not only for men, but it is also essential for women: in 2011, 65 percent of women had no education, 6 percent completed primary education, and 3 percent completed secondary education.
Health
The new president will be held accountable for improving health in the north, as clinics are under-staffed, and women are ten times more likely to die in childbirth than in the south.
With these conditions Boko Haram filled a vacuum. The militants will now be much harder to remove but ultimately, the next government can take steps to start tackling the problems that allowed them to gain a foothold.
Catherine Gegout is Lecturer in International Relations at University of Nottingham. This story is published courtesy of The Conversation (under Creative Commons-Attribution/No derivatives.
