EarthquakesCourt overturns manslaughter conviction of seismologists over 2009 L'Aquila quake

Church destroyed by L'Aquila earthquake // Source: ac.cy

An appeals court in Italy on Monday overturned manslaughter convictions of six of the seven natural disaster experts and seismologists who faced prison sentences for what a lower court described as having falsely reassured residents ahead of a 2009 earthquake which killed 309 people in the central Italy city of L’Aquila. The conviction of the seventh scientist was upheld, but his prison term was cut from six to two years.

The court, which conducted its sessions in the still-rebuilding L’Aquila, exonerated the scientists of the major charge against them, saying they had committed no crime for which they should be held accountable.

In 2012 each of the scientists had been sentenced to six years in prison, but if the defendants appeal their conviction, Italian law does not enforce the convictions until an appeals trial has been held (see “Earthquake science put on trial, quake experts accused of manslaughter,” HSNW, 5 December 2011).

Science reports that the defendants were all scientists or geological or disaster experts who had been members of a government natural disaster advisory panel. They were charged with giving “inexact, incomplete and contradictory information” about whether the low-level seismic activity in the L’Aquila region in the months preceding the 6 April 2009 disaster could be a signal that a dangerous quake was imminent.

On 31 March 2009, a week before the 6.3-magnitude quake hit the region, at a special meeting held to calm anxious residents, members of the panel – called the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks — told the public that it was “unlikely” that a big earthquake would follow the low-level tremors, but they also emphasized that “there are no instruments to make forecasts.”

The former deputy chief of Italy’s civil protection authority, Bernardino de Bernadinis, told the press at the time that there was “no danger” because the small shocks were acting to relieve seismic pressure.

Relatives of those who perished in the quake said that those reassurances had persuaded many residents to stay put rather than leave the area, thus causing their death in the quake. The relatives took legal action against the experts, leading to the conviction of the six seismologists.

The 2012 ruling was met with outrage and dismay by the scientific community, which argued that the convictions were based on a complete misunderstanding of the science used to calculate the probability of an earthquake. Leading scientists and scientific journals argued that the verdict and the logic behind it would have a chilling effect on scientific research, and on the public discussion by scientists of their scientific work. Both the American Geophysical Union and the American Association for the Advancement of Science issued statements against the legal case brought against the scientists, with the AAAS calling the ruling “unfair and naïve.” Others warned that the case could prevent scientists from offering potentially life-saving advice on natural disasters in the future (see “Leading U.S., U.K. scientists condemn conviction of Italian earthquake scientists,” HSNW, 31 October 2012).

The prosecutors who managed to persuade the lower court to convict the six seismologists can still try to reverse Monday’s acquittal in a higher court.

De Bernardinis was found guilty of manslaughter and was sentenced to two years in prison, instead of six. The court said that of the seven experts charged, the court could only prove a link between De Bernardinis’s words and the actions of the victims. Speaking immediately after the verdict, De Bernardinis said he could face “God and men” with a clear conscience — although he previously declared that had he been a father of one of the victims, he, too, would have sought justice.