EbolaRate of infection in West Africa has begun to slow down
Public health officials monitoring the Ebola epidemic in West Africa say the outbreak may have reached a turning point in which transmissions may have begun to slow down. Dr. Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, the organization funding a series of fast-tracked trials of Ebola vaccines and drugs, says that although the virus will continue to infect people in the months ahead, “it is finally becoming possible to see some light.”
Possible Ebola victim receiving treatment // Source: aldjadidonline.com
Public health officials monitoring the Ebola epidemic in West Africa say the outbreak may have reached a turning point in which transmissions may have begun to slow down. Dr. Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, the organization funding a series of fast-tracked trials of Ebola vaccines and drugs, says that although the virus will continue to infect people in the months ahead, “it is finally becoming possible to see some light.” “The progress made is preliminary and uncertain; even if ultimately successful it will not reduce mortality or stop transmission for some time. We are not close to seeing the beginning of the end of the epidemic but (several) developments offer hope that we may have reached the end of the beginning,” he told theGuardian.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed that the number of Ebola cases in Liberia has begun to decline, with fewer burials and more empty hospital beds. The agency does warn against any assumption that the epidemic will soon come to an end. “I’m terrified that the information will be misinterpreted,” said Dr. Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general in charge of the WHO’s Ebola operational response. “This is like saying your pet tiger is under control. This is a very, very dangerous disease. Any transmission change could result in many, many more deaths.”
Officials credit the turning point in the Ebola epidemic to improved education about how to curb infection within affected communities, but they warn that transmissions could increase again, as they did in Guinea. “The danger is that instead of a trend that takes us down to zero, we end up with an oscillating pattern,” Aylward said.
The positive outlook on the Ebola epidemic can also be credited to increase in funding for vaccines. The Wellcome Trust is funding the first human trials of a third vaccine, rVSV-EBOV, developed by the Public Health Agency of Canada. The vaccine, which will be tested in humans in Germany, Switzerland, Gabon, and Kenya, has been tested in monkeys. The Canadian government is donating 800 vials for the trials and Wellcome Trust is donating £3.1 million to enable the collection of safety data, overseen by the WHO. GlaxoSmithKline and Johnson & Johnson also plan on testing their vaccine candidates in West Africa in December.
For Farrar, the grounds for hope in slowing the epidemic is dependent on three developments. “The first advance has been a step change in urgency from the rich world, which is finally starting to commit resources and people on the scale required,” he says. The European Union has increased its Ebola funding to 790 million pounds, along with funds from the United Kingdom and the United States, “money should no longer be a barrier.” The WHO has improved its leadership in coordinating a global response, and finally, vaccines are now being developed and tested.
Still, Farrar believes that despite recent advancements, “the pressure must not let up. The constructive diplomacy of recent days has not saved a single life, nor protected anybody from infection. The epidemic’s exponential curve means it will get worse before it gets better. We have not yet begun to control Ebola, and the new interventions could yet fail. But if the world lives up to its promises, the past week may come to be seen as the turning point.”
