Boko Haram poses a serious challenge to the Nigerian government
Post-Yusuf’s death, Boko Haram splintered into five main factions, but Abubakar Shekau, is believed to be the group’s central leader. Under his command, Boko Haram has conducted small operations in Cameroon and Niger, including the kidnapping of Amadou Ali, the wife of Cameroon’s vice prime minister, and an attack on the Government Secondary School in Chibok, Borno State, where 276 female students were kidnapped and remain captured to this day.
The Nigerian military has claimed to have killed Shekau at least three times, yet videos of him threatening to kill all enemies, congratulating fellow fighters in Iraq and Syria, and declaring a caliphate, continue to emerge. Some Nigerian officials say that videos of Shekau actually feature a look-alike and the videos were developed by other Boko Haram factions.
In its most recent video, Boko Haram claims to show the remnants of a Nigerian jet fighter that went missing on 12 September 2014. The footage shows a jet wing riddled with bullet holes. If the jet featured is indeed the missing Nigerian jet fighter, then it is likely that Boko Haram has acquired anti-aircraft weapons capable of shooting down Nigerian military jets. The video also introduces Al Qaid (Commander) Al Midani Ali Al-khambuwi, the executioner of a man Boko Haram claims to have been the pilot of the Nigerian jet. The introduction of another Boko Haram member other than Shekau may signify the establishment of a formal leadership as Boko Haram begins to expand its interests.
Jonathan has referred to Boko Haram as an al-Qaeda-linked terrorist sect that needs to be dealt with by force, but according to Nigeria analyst Chris Ngwodo, “the emergence of Boko Haram signifies the maturation of long-festering extremist impulses that run deep in the social reality of northern Nigeria.” Ngwodo adds that “the group itself is an effect and not a cause; it is a symptom of decades of failed government and elite delinquency finally ripening into social chaos.”
In the past twenty years, the Nigerian government has made some efforts to address the dissatisfaction among Muslims in the northern states by introducing sharia criminal courts, but many locals consider the courts unfair and to be a tool for northern elites to maintain their power and wealth. According to Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow John Campbell, the “formal politics” of northern Nigeria are “overwhelmingly dominated by Muslim elites, who have, like their counterparts across the country, benefited from oil wealth at the expense of regional development.” The economic disparities between northern and southern Nigeria is vast. 72 percent of northerners live in poverty, compared to 27 percent in the south and 35 percent in the Niger Delta.
The Nigerian government has made attempts to negotiate with Boko Haram, as it did to quell the unrest in the Niger Delta when the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) destabilized oil production between 2006 and 2013. The absence of a clear leader in Boko Haram, however, and the uncertainty over the group’s demands has led Jonathan to see force through a “state of emergency” as the only way forward. Some Nigerian officials have already admitted that Boko Haram cannot be defeated on the battlefield. “Boko Haram (is) better armed and better motivated than our own troops,” Borno state governor Kashim Shettima said in February 2014. “Given the present state of affairs, it is absolutely impossible for us to defeat Boko Haram.”
