DisastersThe Big One will have frightening consequences for Los Angeles: Scientists
Scientists cannot accurately predict when California’s next massive earthquake – or, the Big One – will strike, but they can predict the effects, and it is frightening. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) say these effects will include powerless rescue services, widespread fire damage, and no fresh water for months on end. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake was the region’s the last mega-quake, but scientists say that “When we have the San Andreas earthquake, that earth fault will probably be about 20 to 30 times larger than the fault that produced the Northridge earthquake [which still resulted in $20 Billion in damages].”
Scientists cannot accurately predict when California’s next massive earthquake – or, the Big One – will strike, but they can predict the effects, and it is frightening.
As City Lab reports, the worst case scenario coming from scientist Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), includes powerless rescue services, widespread fire damage, and no fresh water for months on end.
Citing a lack of preparation on the part of state and California officials, Jones said at a recent summit, “There’s so much that science know about what’s going to happen, and we’re seeing that not be used.”
Jones highlighted the fact that Angelinos receive about 85 percent of their water from piped in sources outside of the area, in aqueducts that cross the San Andreas fault, the source of the inevitable Big One.
“When the San Andreas earthquake happens in Southern California – and that’s the most-likely big earthquake in the United States – we know that all of the transportation life lines, the electric systems, the water systems, the gas lines that cross the San Andreas Fault, exactly where they’ll break and what will happen when they break. That hasn’t gotten anybody to do anything about them….it’s going to take 18 months to get them fixed again and we have six-months’ supply of water on this side of the fault – when we’re not in a drought and the reservoirs are full,” Jones warned.
Jones went on to say that the worst quakes along the San Andreas Fault are also unimaginable in comparison to the 1994 Northridge Earthquake, the last mega-quake instance in many Angelinos’ recent memory – and hardly one that resulted in the apocalyptic circumstances that she foresees.
“When we have the San Andreas earthquake, that earth fault will probably be about 20 to 30 times larger than the fault that produced the Northridge earthquake [which still resulted in $20 Billion in damages],” she added.
The event will likely trigger a nightmarish situation for emergency responders in the region as well. Jones predicts many fires – proportional to the amount of shaking and homes affected – which will completely overwhelm the available fire engines and fire fighters currently employed. Because of this, most aid will also have to cross the fault, and roads and railways will likely be inoperable in many parts.
Despite this, Jones adds that there is still time to prepare, and simply the history of California’s previous natural disasters is enough to make it far more prepared than many other parts of the country.
