Analysis, pt. 1 // Israel-Hamas war: Regional contextOpportunities for regional realignment not likely to be seized
After the first twenty-four hours, the 72-hour Egypt-sponsored Gaza cease-fire appears to be holding – something which could not be said for the previous five cease-fires, which were violated by Hamas within minutes of supposedly going into effect. The Israeli delegation yesterday flew to Cairo to begin negotiations on a longer-term arrangement. The reason why this cease-fire is likely to hold has to do with the realization by Hamas Gaza leaders of their isolation and the growing destruction Israel’s attacks were inflicting on Hamas’s war machine and Gaza’s already-dilapidated infrastructure. A militarily weakened Hamas, a moderate Arab block hostile to militant Islam, and a convergence of interests between Israel and the moderate Arab states provide the foundation for profound strategic transformation in the region. It is doubtful, however, that the Netanyahu government will seize the opportunity for a breakthrough in Israel-Palestinian relations, on which such a transformation depends. During the month-long war, Netanyahu has given no indication that he sees this round of Israel-Hamas war in anything other than tactical terms, and has offered nothing to show that he plans to exploit the military results of the war, together with the changing political context in the region, for a bold and creative initiative which would change Israel’s relations with the PA, transform Israel’s strategic position, and realign regional politics.
After the first twenty-four hours, the 72-hour Egypt-sponsored Gaza cease-fire appears to be holding – something which could not be said for the previous five cease-fires, which were violated by Hamas within minutes of supposedly going into effect.
The Israeli delegation yesterday flew to Cairo to begin negotiations on a longer-term arrangement.
There are two reasons why this cease-fire is likely to hold, both having to do with the realization by Hamas Gaza leaders of their isolation and the growing destruction Israel’s attacks were inflicting on Hamas’s war machine and Gaza’s already-dilapidated infrastructure.
The marginalization of Khaled Mashal
Mashal, Hamas’s political leader outside of Gaza, has been the most recalcitrant and stubborn among Hamas leaders, objecting to any cease-fire which did not include a long, and extravagant, list of conditions. Mashal has always been considered somewhat of an outsider among Hamas leaders. Unlike all other Hamas leaders, he was born on the West Bank, not in Gaza, and in his 25-year tenure in the upper echelons of the organization he visited the Gaza Strip only once – for forty-eight hours.
Moreover, Mashal is thoroughly corrupt. His specialty has always been raising funds for Hamas from wealthy Gulf sheiks and setting up sham charities for that purpose, allowing him to skim and pocket large sums from the funds donated to support social services in Gaza. He has invested the stolen money well, helped by his Qatari sponsors, and his personal wealth is now estimated to be around $3 billion. Mashal’s taste for the good life has also weakened his position. Many in Gaza, including fellow Hamas leaders, bitterly complained that it was easy for him, between sumptuous dinners, glittering receptions, and long stays in 5-star hotels, to keep rejecting cease-fire proposals while Gazans were dying and their homes destroyed.
Thus, although Mashal over the weekend objected to Hamas accepting the revived Egyptian cease-fire proposal, he was overruled by the increasingly impatient political and military leadership of Hamas in Gaza, possibly signaling the end, or the substantial weakening, of his position at the top of the organization’s leadership.
