IranU.S. officials say Israel softening position on nuclear deal with Iran

Israel’s official position on any agreement reached between the world powers and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program is “zero, zero, zero,” that is, Israel insists that the agreement should clearly stipulate that Iran should have no centrifuges to enrich uranium, no centrifuge production capability, and no heavy-water reactor and the means to extract weapon-grade plutonium from it.

American officials say, however, that informally there has been a softening of Israel’s position, and that it now appears clear that Israel no longer regards the zero- zero, zero option as realistic and achievable. Instead, the discussions between Israel and the United States now revolve around the monitoring, verification, and enforcement mechanisms which a permanent nuclear deal, should one be achieved, would contain.

Al-Monitor reports that Israel is concerned about how Iranian violations of any agreement will be deterred, or dealt with and punished if they occur, a concern heightened by a growing sense in Israel that U.S. credibility has weakened on the world stage, as evidenced by events in Syria and Ukraine.

Most Israeli officials and experts “seem to understand that ‘zero, zero, zero’ is not going to happen,” a member of a U.S. group of experts and former senior officials recently in Israel for consultations, speaking not for attribution, told Al-Monitor last week. They seem “to understand that there is a need for a domestic, indigenous civil nuclear program….for the Iranians to” deal with their domestic opposition.

“Israel is very concerned about the current discussions with Iran because all signs point to the P5+1 accepting a deal that will leave Iran’s nuclear weapons capability intact,” Israeli ambassador to the U.S. Ron Dermer told an Anti Defamation League conference last week.

“Our policy is simple,” Dermer said. “Let Iran have only a peaceful nuclear program and nothing more.”

“On substantive issues, there is probably room for maneuver,” a senior former U.S diplomat involved in the April consultations in Israel told Al-Monitor on condition he not be named, referring to Israel’s requirements for an Iran nuclear deal.

“But two issues are going to be very hard to persuade the Israelis on,” the former American diplomat continued. “Monitoring: There is very little belief anywhere in Israel that [a comprehensive nuclear] accord can be monitored… that ensures there is not going to be clandestine activity, and the Iranians [could] not break out” at some phase.

“That is a serious concern,” the former U.S. diplomat said. “I don’t want to minimize it, because monitoring is going to be a huge problem. How long did we not know about [aspects] of [Iran’s] clandestine program,” such as Iran’s underground enrichment facility at Fordo, which Iran did not declare to the IAEA until days before the U.S., U.K., and France publicly exposed it in 2009.

The U.S. diplomat told Al-Monitor that the Israelis are also deeply concerned that if there is a violation by Iran of a final nuclear accord, that the violation will be seen by Washington as too ambiguous or incremental, that there “is no smoking gun.”

The Israelis are “nervous that the U.S. will continuously say, ‘we are checking into it, we need more proof,’” the former diplomat described. “At what point does the cumulative effect of the small things add up to a violation?”

The Iran policy expert also said that the Israelis are concerned that the United States does not have a sufficiently credible military threat to deter a future Iranian violation of a comprehensive agreement.

“That is problematic from an Israeli perspective.”

Israel continues to be frustrated by the fact that Israel will be “profoundly impacted” by a nuclear deal, while its representatives are not in the room as the P5+1 talks with Iran. Israel also feels that the United States was not exactly forthcoming about secret U.S.-Iran bilateral contacts which prepared the ground for the negotiations last fall over the interim nuclear deal.

American sources told Al-Monitor that the secrecy was necessary to keep the behind-the-scenes discussions going, and that Israel and the United States have been working to rebuild trust between the two countries over Iran policy.

Israel shares with the region’s Sunni countries a deep mistrust of Shi’a Iran. They worry that if Iran is allowed to maintain some form of a nuclear threshold capability, and is freed from the burden of punishing economic sanctions, city – while keeping its antagonistic approach to regional issues – it would be in a stronger to initiate actions and support proxy groups which would further destabilize the region.