Winter GamesVolgograd attacks probes by terrorists in advance of larger Sochi attacks: Experts

Counter-terrorism experts say that the two terror attacks in Volgograd, Russia on Sunday, 28 December and Monday, 29 December, are probes by terrorists in advance of larger attacks against the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

KCENTV reports that Russia’s security forces, trained to prevent large and well-organized attacks, are not prepared to deal with decentralized, small-unit operations like the two recent bombings. The new strain of Russian terrorism, led by militants from training camps in the Dagestan forest, is proving to be a challenge for Russia.

Since no group has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks, Russian security services must remain at high alert and operate without a lead into who ordered the bombings. Some experts have blamed terror leader, Doku Umarov, but in the past Umarov has claimed responsibility for successful operations, and the fact that he has remained silent now may indicate that he is not behind the two Volgograd attacks.

Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP)-Washington, told NBC News that the recent attacks were a test, ahead of more serious attacks during the Olympic Games.

“I don’t want to believe that somebody else will repeat this in January and February,” said Alexey Malashenko, a scholar in residence at CEIP-Moscow, “but it is possible that Islamist extremists will try to show that they are able to do everything on the territory of the Russian Federation.” The September 2004 attack on a school in Beslan, in which more than 300 people were killed, occurred a week after two suicide bombings on Russian airlines killed eighty-nine people. Prior to that, there were smaller terror attacks in Russia.

Russian security services find it more difficult to prevent terror attacks since a growing number of suicide bombers are Russian Muslims, or Slavs who converted to Islam, and are able to move about without drawing attention. . The suicide bomber who detonated the device at the recent train station bombing is suspected to be an ethnic Russian physician who converted to Islam. “These ethnic Slavs have been used more frequently as suicide bombers and masterminds,” added Malashenko. “When they are converted and enter cells they cut all links to their former lives, to their mothers and fathers. It’s something new that previously we have not known in this country, people converting themselves to Islam and becoming bitter enemies of their former brethren.”

Analysts agree that the use of ethnic Slavs serve as a message that the threat was expanding.

U.S. and Russian intelligence services are likely to increase cooperation in order to protect American athletes, coaches, and visitors during the Olympic Games. “You can be sure we’re taking a hard look at this,” said one U.S. official, who added that the new security assessment for the Olympics is not going to wait that long. The Olympics begin next month.