Earthquakes warningsU.S. nation-wide quake early-warning system

The United States is likely to be struck by a major earthquake within the next twenty years. Scientists say that instead of waiting to experience a devastating earthquake and then invest in preventative measures for subsequent earthquakes, the country should be proactive and take action before  the event.

Nature reports that investing in a nationwide earthquake warning system will save lives, prevent destruction of key infrastructure, and reduce the size of the economic loss that may result from an earthquake. Japan, China, Taiwan, Mexico, Turkey, and Romania already have systems which issue national earthquake alerts to prepare the public. When signs of the Tohoku-Oki magnitude-9 earthquake, which hit northeast Japan in March 2011, were registered, a warning was issued within seconds, allowing trains to stop, students to take shelter under desks, sensitive manufacturing equipment to be turned off, and procedures to isolate hazardous chemicals to be initiated.

An effective early warning system requires preparation and planning. Educating the public on how to respond to alerts is critical. When seismic sensors signal the first vibrations of a rupturing fault, alerts can be issued immediately to give people up to five minutes to respond, depending on their distance from the epicenter. During Japan’s Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Sendai, the closest city to the epicenter, received a 15-second warning.

Richard Allen, the director of the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory and a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at the University of California, Berkeley, writes in Nature that the United States should look to California as a case study for developing a national early warning system. For the past two years California has installed an earthquake warning system, ShakeAlert, which provides seismic alerts to thirty-six organizations involved in transportation, manufacturing, and emergency response. The system’s seismic sensors detect earthquakes daily and issue alerts to participating groups and organizations when the tremor’s magnitude exceeds 2.5. Allen says that the system should now be developed to provide alerts to the West Coast – and nationwide – public.

Allen believes developing and installing a nationwide system are best accomplished through a public-private partnership. In Japan, “the public sector pays for the installation and long-term operation of geophysical networks to detect earthquakes and generate basic alerts. The private sector enhances and delivers the alerts, and provides support and risk-reduction expertise to the public and to businesses,” he writes. Commercial opportunities created from adopting a nationwide warning system include the creation of customizable mobile apps and alert services, and money-saving consulting services offered to businesses in critical industries like manufacturing, petrochemical, and biotechnology.

Implementing a nationwide early warning system for earthquakes requires political will and contribution from the public and private businesses. The cost to build and operate a West Coast alert system would be $120 million over five years,and a further $16 million a year to run it. This averages $2.44 per person for the populations of California, Oregon, and Washington.

Allen notes, “My morning coffee costs me $2.40.”