Early warningCalifornia mulls costly earthquake early-warning system

The price of an early warning system which would alert California officials about an earthquake within sixty seconds before a major temblor strikes would be$80 million. The California legislature passed a bill on 13 September, requiring the state to develop the earthquake warning system. “We live in earthquake country. When it comes to earthquakes in California, it is not a matter of if, but when,” State Senator Alex Padilla, the bill’s lead sponsor, said in a statement. “A fully developed earthquake early warning system will provide Californians critical seconds to take cover, assist loved ones, or pull over safely to the side of the road. It could allow time to stop a train and power down critical infrastructure. Most importantly, it will save lives.”

The New York Daily News reports that a prototype for the new warning system has been in testing since  2000 as part of a joint effort between the California Integrated Seismic Network, a consortium of researchers from CalTech, the University of California at Berkeley, and the United States Geological Survey. The proposed system will use sensors to detect small P waves, the first sign of a pending earthquake. Scientists analyze the P waves quickly to calculate the size of the following S waves, then alert officials on the size and scope of the earthquake.

In an interview with the Daily News, David Oppenheimer, project chief for CISN’s Northern California division, warns that “If BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit) were knocked out, that would be catastrophic to the Bay Area economy. But if you have enough warning so that you can stop or slow down trains so that they don’t derail, you save lots of money.”

Implementing the new system is a major infrastructure and communication project. About a third to one-half of the current detection stations are useless when it comes to fine-grained measurements required in earthquake prediction. Upon installing new detection stations, the state will decide how to communicate the actual warnings to residents. Text messages, tweets, automated phone calls, paper services, and Web alerts are options to consider.

Governor Jerry Brown will have to sign the bill, and it is unclear whether he will or not. “We need to develop this system without delay. California is going to have an earthquake early warning system, the question is whether we have one before or after the next big quake,” Padilla said. Japan, Mexico, Taiwan, Turkey, Romania, and China current have early-detection systems in place.