Security trendsU.S. intelligence forecast: growing interstate conflicts over food, water
The U.S. National Intelligence Council, the research arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, yesterday released its Global Trends 2030; the report’s authors say that food, water, and energy will be more scarce; “Nearly half of the world’s population will live in areas experiencing severe water stress,” the report notes; Africa and the Middle East will be most at risk of food and water shortages, with China and India also vulnerable; one bright spot for the United States: energy independence sometime between 2020 and 2030
Armed conflict over water and food are linkely in the coming decades // Source: bezumno.ru
The U.S. National Intelligence Council, the research arm of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, yesterday released its Global Trends 2030. The report outlines what best-case and worst-case scenarios from U.S. perspective.
The Economic Times reports that in the worst-case scenario, the rising population leads to conflict over water and food, especially in the Mideast and Africa, and the resulting instability contributes to global economic collapse.
The report’s authors say that food, water, and energy will be more scarce. “Nearly half of the world’s population will live in areas experiencing severe water stress,” the report notes. Africa and the Middle East will be most at risk of food and water shortages, with China and India also vulnerable.
The report anticipates crises as a result of fighting among nations which do not adapt rapidly enough and the possible spillover of instability in the Mideast and South Asia to the rest of the world.
CBS News reports that under the heading “Stalled Engines,” the report highlights what it calls the “most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase,” the report said. “The U.S. draws inward and globalization stalls.”
The report also warns of the catastrophic effect of possible “Black Swans” — extraordinary events that can change the course of history: a severe pandemic that could kill millions in a matter of months and more rapid climate change that could make it hard to feed the world’s population.
“This [the grimmest scenario] is not inevitable,” lead study author Mathew Burrows told CBS News. “In most cases, it’s manageable if you take measures … now.”
Such steps could include decreasing wasting resources like water and increasing the efficiency of food production, he said.
The report highlights one bright spot for the United States: energy independence.
“With shale gas, the U.S. will have sufficient natural gas to meet domestic needs and generate potential global exports for decades to come,” the report said.
