Israel estimates an Iranian retaliation would kill 200-300 Israeli civilians
a few dozen missiles would hit Israeli cities, probably Tel Aviv and the surrounding cities.
In 1991, during the first Gulf War, Israeli defense planners estimated that there would be about three Israeli civilian deaths for every missile Iraq would launch at Israel. These estimates proved too generous: Iraq launched forty-one SCUD missiles at Israel and there was only one Israeli civilian casualty as a result of a direct hit by a missile.
Haaretznotes that the Iranian missiles today are better and more accurate that the Iraqi missiles of twenty years ago, but the Israeli population is better prepared, and better drilled, in missile attacks, and most Israeli buildings have fortified shelters.
During the summer 2006 war with Hezbollah, and since the 2007 takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas, Israeli citizens have been subjected to attacks by thousands of missiles and rockets, yet the number of dead and injured has been remarkably low because of the availability of shelters and the timely response of civilians to alerts about incoming rockets.
Moreover, alerts about rockets fired by Hamas and Hezbollah give citizens only a few seconds to find shelter, while Israel would enjoy 15-minute alerts in the case of an Iranian missile heading toward Israel.
The case of Hezbollah is a bit different. Hezbollah fired about 4,200 rockets at Israel during the July-August 2006 war, killing forty-two civilians and twelve soldiers. Hezbollah could not fire any of its mid-range and long-range missiles because, in a brilliant operation (code-named Operation Specific Weight), the IAF destroyed all of them in the first thirty-six minutes of the war.
Haaretznotes that Iran and Syria have restocked Hezbollah’s arsenal, and the organization now has about 60,000 rockets and a few hundred M-600 mid-range rockets capable of hitting Israel’s population centers around Tel Aviv. Hezbollah uses the Shi’a population in South Lebanon as a human shield, hiding the organization’s rockets in private homes, hospitals, and schools.
In 2006 the IAF destroyed dozens of homes in Lebanon in the process of destroying Hezbollah’s missiles. In an intelligence briefing a year ago, Israel Defense Force (IDF) officers presented maps and aerial photographs showing how Hezbollah conceals its weapons in the midst of civilian population, and said that in the next war with Hezbollah Israel would have to destroy some 120 Shi’a villages and towns at the outset of the conflict in order to destroy Hezbollah’s arsenal.
The Ministry of Defense operation research experts estimate that there would be one Israeli civilian death for every eighty rockets Hezbollah launches at Israel.
