IranIsrael estimates an Iranian retaliation would kill 200-300 Israeli civilians
The operation research experts at the Israeli Ministry of Defense estimate that an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a retaliation in which Hezbollah would participate, would cause about 200 dead among Israeli civilians; if Syria were to join the attack on Israel, the number of dead would rise to about 300; the estimates are based on past conflicts, the efficacy of Israeli missile defense system, the number of fortified shelters available, and the generally disciplined manner in which Israeli civilians reacted to being under missile and rocket attacks
Israeli casualties expected to be low in Iranian retaliation // Source: presstv.ir
The operation research experts at the Israeli Ministry of Defense estimate that an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities – a retaliation in which Hezbollah, a Lebanese group which follows Iran’s orders, would participate – would cause about 200 dead among Israeli civilians. If Syria were to join the attack on Israel, the number of dead would rise to about 300.
Haaretzreports that the Ministry of Defense operation research department was tasked by the Israeli political and military leadership to study the issue of the cost to Israel of an Iranian retaliation. These studies are necessary as the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, an attack which Israel would undertake unilaterally or in collaboration with the United States, is increasing by the day. Several rounds of talks with Iran have proved fruitless, and the very harsh economic sanctions imposed on Iran have, so far, failed to persuade the Iranian leadership to abandon the country’s nuclear weapons program.
Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister, got into hot water a few months ago when he said in an interview that those who claim that an Iranian retaliation to an Israel attack would inflict thousands, perhaps even tens of thousands, of casualties on Israel were wide off the mark: a war with Iran “would not be a picnic,” he said, but there would be “far fewer than 500 dead” among Israeli civilians. He did not say at the time that he was basing his estimates on studies by his department’s experts, and critics charged that he gave the impression of being uncaring about civilian casualties.
According the information publically available, Iran has in its possession a few hundred Shihab missiles that can reach Israel. Haaretz says that the Israeli Ministry of Defense believes that Iran would retaliate against the destruction of its nuclear facilities by Israel, but that it would not use all its missiles in one or two salvos. The assumption is that some of the missiles Iran would launch would encounter mechanical problems before launch; others would be destroyed on the ground before launch by the Israel Air Force (IAF); a large number of the missile launched would be intercepted and destroyed in mid-air by Israel’s Arrow ballistic defense system; and some of the missile which got through would miss their target and land in uninhabited areas. These calculations lead the Ministry of Defense to estimate that
